Суперпрогнозування. Мистецтво та наука передбачення

HTML:Prykladna literatura<br>Zavdi͡aky vminni͡u prohnozuvaty podiï moz͡hna unyknuty pomylok i dosi͡ahty uspikhu v usikh sferakh nashoho z͡hytti͡a. Odnak malo komu do snahy peredbachyty, u shcho varto vkladaty koshty, i͡akyĭ novyĭ produkt zdaten zavoi͡uvaty rynok i i͡akykh zmin chekaty na politychniĭ areni. Navitʹ providni eksperty chasto radshe zdohadui͡utʹsi͡a pro pevni rechi, niz͡h analizui͡utʹ moz͡hlyvosti ïkhnʹoï poi͡avy. Utim dei͡aki fakhivt͡si zdatni robyty dostovirni peredbachenni͡a. I͡Ak ïm t͡se vdai͡etʹsi͡a i chy moz͡hna t͡sʹoho navchytysi͡a?

HTML: Applied literature
Thanks to the ability to predict events, you can avoid mistakes and achieve success in all areas of our lives. However, few people are able to predict what is worth investing in, a new product is able to win the market and what changes to expect in the political arena. Even leading experts are often more likely to guess some things than analyze the possibility of their occurrence. However, some experts are able to make reliable predictions. How do they do it and can they learn?